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Date: July 28, 2004 05:43 PM
Author: Joanne C Thompson
Subject: Democratic Convention
I feel your vitriolic description of the Democratic Convention and its delegates was uncalled for. All of us, Democrats and Republicans and Independent and Greens are trying to create a better country and world.I have been a reader for years but if this is an example of your "truth", I am canceling your newsletter!
(http://65.88.90.51/forums/Index.cfm?CFApp=3&Message_ID=169990)
Date: July 28, 2004 06:47 PM
Author: Arthur Gibson
Subject: "I have been a reader for years"
Oh for crying out loud - what's up with you?
How can you read that (in my opinion) garbage for "years"?
Can't you recognise a bunch of (in my opinion) con-artists when you read their stuff?
Get your brain into gear and "unsubscribe" immediately. Reading DR will (in my opinion) distort your outlook on investing, finance and the economy and cause you to make unbalanced decisions in your investment strategy.
Yes it is good to listen to all points of view and yes, reading a few issues of DR is profitable to understand their angle. There IS some truth in what Bonner and Co says. But (in my opinion) they have some deep-rooted psychological problems which need to be resolved and this distortion should not be allowed to cloud the thinking of right minded people.
You have smelt a rat, so now I urge you to act on your instinct; UN-SUBSCRIBE and never re-subscribe. Dip into the DR site every few months and get their take on things if you want, but don't read the thing daily, or you will drive yourself nuts.
The same goes for everyone else who may read this thread. This is a truly great discussion board, but the free newsletter that brought us here is unfortunately (in my opinion) seriously flawed.
I'm sorry Bill and Addison, but that is my honest appraisal of the situation. I wish it were different, but its not.
(http://65.88.90.51/forums/Index.cfm?CFApp=3&Message_ID=170009)
Date: July 28, 2004 07:08 PM
Author: Thye Usual Suspect
Subject: Rabbit Oppressor
For someone who torments and tortures poor Rabbit,,,,
Requiring the poor thing to write abysmal epochs, and divine the course of economics,,,plus stand in for that Reapo with factual informations...
YOU,,,, should be cancelled.....
Outsourcing Rabbits is a crime!
I was recently the victum of a CON having ordered a publication which never arrived,,and my attempts to redress has come to naught as there is no response to my messages and no sure way to communicate to INTERNATIONAL LIVING.
It was the French realestate investment deal where you are able to buy VAT free and lease back...
I was charged, on my card..
real bunch of Grifters this...
No pun
(http://65.88.90.51/forums/Index.cfm?CFApp=3&Message_ID=170019)
Date: July 28, 2004 07:38 PM
Author: James Hyland
Subject: Lapine opinion?
OK, Arthur but what does the real force in the Gibson household (no, not your wife; the long-eared one) have to say?
Funny though, I started reading DR a little less than a year ago, and in the last few months, I found I went from reading it daily to about weekly. I agree, the Forum is where it's at. But I certainly do tip my hat and thank Mr. Bonner and the DR gang for sponsoring it. In Canada, I could be jailed for publicly expressing the views I express here.
(http://65.88.90.51/forums/Index.cfm?CFApp=3&Message_ID=170026)
Date: July 28, 2004 09:51 PM
Author: Kenmeer Livermaile
Subject: "..spike jones on the box ..." (The Band, 'Cripple
Creek')
"There IS some truth in what Bonner and Co says."
I like less what they say than how they say it.
Elegance is its own reward.
(http://65.88.90.51/forums/Index.cfm?CFApp=3&Message_ID=170070)
Date: July 29, 2004 03:29 AM
Author: Eleuthero
Subject: Much better stuff than the Rabbit!!!
The *real* Arthur comes through!!! Although Arthur and I have gone from threatening to murder each other to a now civil relationship, I think we are making even more progress towards downright amiability when he writes his critique of DR.
The ads which infiltrate the daily screed are just too pathetically comical to read -- "secret" investments from "gurus" with vague hints at 1000% returns are nothing short of snake oil. The screeds themselves are variations on "back up the truck and buy gold" -- even from their "star" Mogambo.
Mogambo is even getting old because his literary gambits are repetitious such as inventing acronyms. He might say something like: "For all those In The Know (ITK),...". A half decent comedian needs more than one or two gags. It's all the same "I'm so crazy that I want you to shoot me with rubber bullets and pump a magnum of vodka down my throat and watch me writhe" kind of "I so crazy I smart".
This board, flawed as it occasionally can be, especially with the Bible quoters, wrap-myself-in-the-flag "patriots", and "I'm a more stand-up guy than you" virtuecrats is far better than the daily missives.
As for investments, the Government gets its clues as to when recessions start and end by calling up ECRI (businesscycle.com). Why don't you? The current ECRI adjusted prediction for 8 months out has been revised over the last 3 months from a prediction of 3% future growth to 1.8% to 1.1%. I suspect future revisions are in the offing.
ECRI has made me money with its simple little curve because the stock market sees 6 months out and that's why it is going DOWN even though earnings have been wonderful. ECRI also sees inflationary pressures building. What an EASY scenario. Because you can now simply short the long bond (via RYJUX or RRPIX) to join your short of the SPX (via RYURX, etc.).
Naturally, since the market has dropped 7% in the last few months, you may fall victim to a reflex rally in the next week or so but unless that ECRI curve turns around (and fast!! It's got quite a downward arc!!), these two investments are easy but will not make you a gazillionaire. If you're into getting rich yesterday, well, then good luck because I think the number of people who will get rich on the LONG side in the next 18 months will grow vanishingly small.
E.
(http://65.88.90.51/forums/Index.cfm?CFApp=3&Message_ID=170138)
Date: July 29, 2004 11:50 AM
Author: feelingolder
Subject: ECRI
I went to the reccomended site to check it out. They don't list a price for their subscriptions. Do you subscribe to one of their levels, and if so, for how long?
(http://65.88.90.51/forums/Index.cfm?CFApp=3&Message_ID=170257)
Date: July 29, 2004 12:15 PM
Author: tbo
I think you must keep in mind M. Bonner's disdain of the lumenvestor. I think he might be just proving his point.
(http://65.88.90.51/forums/Index.cfm?CFApp=3&Message_ID=170267)
Date: July 28, 2004 08:27 PM
Author: Finster
Subject: Wide Specturm Critics
The presidential campaign has finally given the DR a good opportunity to reinject some balance into the political side of its commentary. Republicans have endured years of criticism of the Bush administration.
The editors have stated before they are not boosters of either major party in US politics, and are just showing their willingness to heap scorn on whomever they feel merits it. And with their libertarian bent, just about anything in Big Politics is a likely target.
If you came here expecting your partisan predilections to be affirmed, forget about it!
(http://65.88.90.51/forums/Index.cfm?CFApp=3&Message_ID=170038)
Date: July 28, 2004 09:28 PM
Author: Wageslave
Subject: Republicans have endured years of Bush criticism.....
It isn't anything like the Democrats endured during the Clinton years. But then if Clinton had been screwing guys maybe the Republicans and the twice born would be OK with that ????
(http://65.88.90.51/forums/Index.cfm?CFApp=3&Message_ID=170066)
Date: July 29, 2004 06:35 AM
Author: Finster
Subject: Clinton Years?
DR only began publishing at the very end of the Clinton years. There has been far, far more criticism of the Bush administration.
(http://65.88.90.51/forums/Index.cfm?CFApp=3&Message_ID=170156)
Date: July 28, 2004 11:56 PM
Author: Aw what the heck
Subject: ...just ignore the B.S.
...I do....
(http://65.88.90.51/forums/Index.cfm?CFApp=3&Message_ID=170096)
Date: July 29, 2004 11:10 AM
Author: feelingolder
Subject: Kerry for prez
Maybe it would be a good idea to vote for Kerry. The economy will continue on it's secular bear trend and wouldn't it be better if Kerry got the blame from the masses who think the prez is responsible for the economy.
Kerry getting elected this term would screw Hillary's chances for 2008 and 2012. Just a thought.
(http://65.88.90.51/forums/Index.cfm?CFApp=3&Message_ID=170238)
Date: July 29, 2004 11:34 AM
Author: Bud Wood
Subject: Logical
Your Kerry for Prez post has some logic to it. Like you speculate, it probably won't make difference to the short run economy.
This election seems to have some deja vue, though, like the Al Smith vs Herbert Hoover election. If Smith had won, the USA would probably not have been taken so quickly into national-socialism nor would WWII visited the USA. While some may believe that progress under Rooesvelt's administration was salubrious for the USA, my guess is that a totally objective view would be much more otherwise.
Nice thought, but it seems that Bush has this election sewn-up.
(http://65.88.90.51/forums/Index.cfm?CFApp=3&Message_ID=170250)
Date: July 29, 2004 11:41 AM
Author: feelingolder
Subject: Singer vs. Bernina
Nice thought, but it seems that Bush has this election sewn-up.
Even if the market keeps heading down? It could go far south between now and November.
(http://65.88.90.51/forums/Index.cfm?CFApp=3&Message_ID=170254)
Date: July 29, 2004 12:06 PM
Author: Guy who wore
a Hoover button
Subject: Probably
Yes, probably even if the market goes south during the next several months. But it won't simply because there is much money out there that will assure a continuation of current levels.
That said, I am in RYAIX, but merely as insurance. That investment probably won't pay-off for a year or so.
(http://65.88.90.51/forums/Index.cfm?CFApp=3&Message_ID=170265)
Date: July 29, 2004 12:09 PM
Author:
feelingolder
Subject: Hoover button
Hoover button as in Hubert? Or were you a vacumn cleaner salesman?
Seriously, were you really alive while Hoover was prez?
(http://65.88.90.51/forums/Index.cfm?CFApp=3&Message_ID=170266)
Date: July 29, 2004 12:29 PM
Author: Guy who
wore a Hoover button
Subject: Yes
- - - Seriously, yes, I was even alive before Hoover was Prez. Didn't vote for him because I wasn't quite that old. But would have voted for Hoover because my daddy said to - - like a majority of voters do now because someone tells them how to vote. So much for one person one vote!
I'm not feeling older. . . just old. Can't get a lot older without setting a new record. Hmmm, maybe I'd like that.
(http://65.88.90.51/forums/Index.cfm?CFApp=3&Message_ID=170269)
Date: July 29, 2004 12:46 PM
Author:
feelingolder
Subject: older or golder
No one has ever asked, but I am getting tired of waiting so;
When thinking up the the moniker feelingolder I was never sure if it was feeling older or feelin golder. It still just depends on how I am feeling.
If you remember the times around Hoover and the depression, were you in a position to be aware of financial matters? What factors do you think resulted in the depression?
(http://65.88.90.51/forums/Index.cfm?CFApp=3&Message_ID=170274)
Date: July 29, 2004 02:12 PM
Author: Guy
who wore a Hoover button
Subject: Same things . .
Probably, the same things that cause most depressions. That is the usual "over indulgence" of prior times that just had to be worked out. Of course, some of the new responses (the Smoot act or whatever it was called) exacerbated the problems by throwing roadblocks in international trade and by raising interest rates to modify the financial "bubbles". Then the many rules & regulations, such as the National Recovery Act (NRA-"We do our part") created more non-productive activities. Although the Works Progress Administration (WPA) did a lot of good things, there were an awful lot of "make-work" projects that merely proved that the theory of labor-valuation was not realistic.
All in all, the depression was a normal economic response to excesses in the system and the medicine used to cure the depression had much too many harmful side effects. But I lived through it and so did my father who lost his nice little business. - - And so did a lot of others who, not incidentally, didn't live through "our war" (World War II).
(http://65.88.90.51/forums/Index.cfm?CFApp=3&Message_ID=170298)
Date: July 29, 2004 04:45 PM
Author:
feelingolder
Subject: depressions
Do you see the same over indulgences now? Or not?
If so, what do you think are the best preperations for such a time?
(http://65.88.90.51/forums/Index.cfm?CFApp=3&Message_ID=170336)
Date: July 29, 2004 05:59 PM
Author:
Lucius Foster
Subject: Hoover, where the hell
are the two chickens much less the pot?
The depression was really a kick, that is if you were a child and had recently returned from parts of the world where you only washed rice once before cooking. Save the Protein.
Of course as Dear Franklin took over and tried so many things that had been used before but were fun to see back in force. Made me read history. My Grandfather who went short in the Market and came to California to indulge his hobby of building funny little houses, said, "Look at everything, these times are interesting. Watch the responses within the Merchantile Society. This will test if it is truly at cause."
My Mother opened a little dress shop on Sunset Blvd. After all after five failed marriages, she decided to just rent a mate. Well timed the day it opened was the start of Bank Holiday. No money. My Mother the great Connie, just took IOU's. Her theory the good ones will in time pay and the bad ones have a need. Of course we did not pay the servants, they just lived with us and very strange became close wonderful friends. My Mother gave a formal dinner party for some wealthy friends. The servants served and then sat at table with us. Oh my god. My Grandfather sat there in shock and slowly over his face a big smile."I guess I just died." he said, "Cause this has got to be heaven." Ovie and Charles I will always love them. My Grandfather built them a house down on Crenshaw blvd. 4 bedrooms and 4 baths. He said there is just the two of them but maybe they might want to have some servants of their own. I hope they are white!
Perhaps it was LaLa land. Perhaps it was a view of the population of the United States with its clothes and pretenses removed. The corner Drug Store on Sunset Blvd. Free soup and a sandwich, and many a struggling writer, actor or just an extra took advantage.
We all made out. It was interesting and the adjustments fitted in nicely. Loved the songs. "Theres a new day in view thee is gold in the blue. Theres the sound of busy men. Every plow in the land, meets a happier hand, For the Road is Open Again!" And the humor. "Join the WPA every person so employed will get his own personal shovel....To lean against!" My god twas like the time when Gracus ran Rome. It was a most interesting time. Good memories.
Cheers Lucius
(http://65.88.90.51/forums/Index.cfm?CFApp=3&Message_ID=170379)
Date: July 29, 2004 06:16 PM
Author:
Guy who wore a Hoover button
Subject: Sure,
there's always over indulgence - - MORE?
Over indulgence big time, now, but things don't seem to play out on the same scripts. Different financial set-up and even different money and few people in USA really understood inflation in the 1930s (why should they?; they had silver certificates for money). Interest rates got low then, but now there's not a lot of room to lower them further like there was then. Now, less production per capita and more consumer debt. It seems that the Kondratieff cycle somewhat tracks that old saying: "they make the same mistakes that their grandfathers made" - - which implies that it takes two generations to forget lessons learned the hard way. My father and also my wife's father said to never put a cent in the stock market. Here I am, invested in the market like my grandfather was.
Actually, seemed that few people then had any good preparation for depression. Doubt that there is any good preparation now except to not be in debt. Also, be mentally prepared to just muddle through; like the post above said, "we all made out". But as I said, the scripts don't play out in the same ways.
In my experience, the USA government over the years has gotten into a lot of mischief. Sure, some government activities have been beneficial but on balance, government is not citizen friendly (except during election times). I take this fact into account by keeping a somewhat low profile. I'm not too concerned with depressions but the regular government participation in wars is really depressing.
I doubt that I'm anywhere as good at figuring out the really big picture as are guys who study financials professionally (like Richard Russell, John Templeton, etc). However, these are my thoughts which have served me over the years.
(http://65.88.90.51/forums/Index.cfm?CFApp=3&Message_ID=170394)
Date: July 28, 2004 07:37 PM
Author: Sir William of Moxley
Subject: Bill's next Financial Summit
Will it be held in Bumfuk, Egypt this year? Maybe some other less convient place I guess. You going?
(http://65.88.90.51/forums/Index.cfm?CFApp=3&Message_ID=170025)
Date: July 29, 2004 01:30 PM
Author: SirEdward
bumfuk, we could be so lucky. how's it going in Chateau Twateau, Bill?
(http://65.88.90.51/forums/Index.cfm?CFApp=3&Message_ID=170289)
Date: July 29, 2004 06:22 PM
Author: Lucius Foster
Subject: You have misspelled Alexandria Egypt.
Now this is city the perfect place to hold a meeting. It is a mix of everything and on a moonlite night there is the almost magical presance of the old library. I know, I know they burnt it down but still, you can feel it there. With all that knowledge of our long gone beginnings.
Near where the Library once stood there is a little Cafe, you know the kind, funny cigarettes for the modern folk and the big pipes for those hooked on olden ways. The conversation in ten languages and the point of views from Northern Climes to Joe Town near the Cape. The coffee is served in little tiny cups with foam all over the top. First sip and your tounge wants a refund. Second sip and you wonder where the hell your tounge went. Now this is the place to pose a question and the answers will flood the room. Buried in all that noise will be a truth or two. Something to take home and cogitate on and twist it into a business plan or a method of seduction depending on your bent or need.
Let me know when and why. I will be there. Elderly person with a funny haircut, hawaiian shirt and of course the digital camera and oh yes the canvas shoes. les american.
Cheers Lucius
(http://65.88.90.51/forums/Index.cfm?CFApp=3&Message_ID=170397)